· Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Mallorca II vs Portmany Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Mallorca II and 0.55 for Portmany, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Mallorca II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mallorca II win
81.6% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mallorca II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portmany away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mallorca II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 13% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Mallorca II and 0.55 for Portmany, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.4%
- 3–012.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 4–08.3%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Mallorca II
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 0-2 (L)
Portmany
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotlet Molinar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Collerense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Son Cladera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Platges Calvià | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Constància | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Porreres | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcúdia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Formentera | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Llosetense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Andratx | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mallorca II win, at 81.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.