Estadi Mallorca Son Moix · Referee A. Dominguez · Analysis updated 19:14 UTC
Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.87 for AD Ceuta FC, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Mallorca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mallorca win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mallorca home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AD Ceuta FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mallorca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Mallorca and 0.87 for AD Ceuta FC, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.7%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.40 | 67.4% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 49.3% | 50.3% | 1.99 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.6% | 16.3% | 6.13 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.52 | 61.6% | 62.2% | 1.61 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.1% | 83.7% | 1.19 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 46.9% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.77 | 53.1% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.0% | 37.8% | 2.65 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 78.9% | 78.5% | 1.27 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 49.7% | 2.01 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 22.8% | 21.5% | 4.65 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.90 | 32.6% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Mallorca
- 2026-10-24T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Almeria · 0-1 (L)
AD Ceuta FC
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · Mallorca 3-0 AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Eldense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mallorca win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.