· Analysis updated 02:41 UTC
Mallorca vs Al-Fateh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.91 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Mallorca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mallorca win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mallorca home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Fateh away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mallorca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Mallorca and 0.91 for Al-Fateh, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Mallorca
- 2026-10-24T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Almeria · 0-1 (L)
Al-Fateh
- 2026-10-22T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hazm · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:20:00.000Z · A vs NEOM · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mallorca win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.