Mallorca vs Almeria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.85 for Almeria, a combined total of 1.74. That distribution gives Mallorca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mallorca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almeria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mallorca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 34% / 34% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Mallorca and 0.85 for Almeria, a combined 1.74 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Mallorca win34%

Draw34%

Almeria win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals25%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

0–017.6%
1–015.6%
0–115.0%
1–113.3%
2–06.9%

Recent form

Mallorca

2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Almeria · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 2-0 (W)

Almeria

2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	9	7	0	2	11	21
2	Eibar	9	7	0	2	9	21
3	Castellón	9	6	2	1	11	20
4	Mallorca	9	5	2	2	7	17
5	Sabadell	9	4	4	1	3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	5	1	3	1	16
7	Girona	9	4	3	2	6	15
8	Burgos	9	4	2	3	2	14
9	Oviedo	9	4	2	3	2	14
10	Granada CF	9	4	2	3	1	14
11	Valladolid	9	3	3	3	2	12
12	Tenerife	9	3	3	3	-2	12
13	Celta de Vigo II	9	3	2	4	-1	11
14	Eldense	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Las Palmas	9	3	2	4	-3	11
16	Leganes	9	3	2	4	-8	11
17	FC Andorra	9	3	1	5	-2	10
18	Cordoba	9	3	0	6	-6	9
19	Real Sociedad II	9	2	2	5	-5	8
20	Cadiz	9	1	4	4	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	1	2	6	-12	5
22	Albacete	9	0	1	8	-15	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.