Estadi Mallorca Son Moix · Referee Gorka Etayo Herrera · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Mallorca vs Las Palmas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.74 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Mallorca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mallorca win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mallorca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Las Palmas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mallorca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Mallorca and 0.74 for Las Palmas, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Mallorca
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Almeria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 2-0 (W)
Las Palmas
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Cadiz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Mallorca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mallorca win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.