· Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Mallorca vs SV Elversberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.75 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Mallorca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mallorca win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mallorca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Elversberg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mallorca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Mallorca and 1.75 for SV Elversberg, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–25.9%
Recent form
Mallorca
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Almeria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 2-0 (W)
SV Elversberg
- 2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · Mallorca 1-1 SV Elversberg (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mallorca win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.