Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.88 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives AIK Stockholm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AIK Stockholm win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malmo FF home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AIK Stockholm away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AIK Stockholm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 22% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Malmo FF and 1.88 for AIK Stockholm, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Malmo FF win33%

Draw22%

AIK Stockholm win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.4%
1–28.8%
2–17.4%
2–26.9%
0–16.0%

Recent form

Malmo FF

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK Stockholm · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 1-0 (W)

AIK Stockholm

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
5	IF Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	9	37
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	-15	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	-24	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AIK Stockholm win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.