Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.20 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Malmo FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Malmo FF win

58.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malmo FF home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Degerfors IF away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Malmo FF win58%

Draw21%

Degerfors IF win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.3%
2–08.1%
1–07.7%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Malmo FF

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK Stockholm · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 1-0 (W)

Degerfors IF

2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IK brage · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · Malmo FF 1-2 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · Malmo FF 1-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
2025-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · Malmo FF 1-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
2025-05-11T14:30:00.000Z · Malmo FF 4-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
2023-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · Malmo FF 2-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
2023-06-05T17:10:00.000Z · Malmo FF 5-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
2023-03-05T12:00:00.000Z · Malmo FF 2-1 Degerfors IF (Svenska Cupen)
2022-11-06T14:00:00.000Z · Malmo FF 2-2 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
2022-05-29T13:00:00.000Z · Malmo FF 2-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
2021-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · Malmo FF 3-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
5	IF Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	9	37
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	-15	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	-24	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Malmo FF win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.