Malmö FF W vs Djurgården W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Malmö FF W and 0.73 for Djurgården W, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Malmö FF W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Malmö FF W win

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malmö FF W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Djurgården W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malmö FF W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Malmö FF W and 0.73 for Djurgården W, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Malmö FF W win68%

Draw20%

Djurgården W win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

2–013.1%
1–012.8%
2–19.5%
1–19.3%
3–09.0%

Recent form

Malmö FF W

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosengård W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pölten W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Brommapojkarna W · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-23T16:45:00.000Z · A vs St. Pölten W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgården W · 3-0 (W)

Djurgården W

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Älvsjö AIK W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uppsala W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmö FF W · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristianstad W · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Damallsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Häcken W	22	20	1	1	60	61
2	Hammarby W	22	17	2	3	38	53
3	Malmö FF W	22	12	6	4	27	42
4	Kristianstad W	22	10	5	7	8	35
5	AIK W	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	Vittsjö W	22	9	5	8	1	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	22	10	2	10	-7	32
8	Djurgården W	22	8	3	11	-6	27
9	Eskilstuna United W	22	8	3	11	-10	27
10	Piteå W	22	6	6	10	-7	24
11	Rosengård W	22	6	5	11	-3	23
12	Norrköping W	22	4	8	10	-17	20
13	Växjö W	22	5	3	14	-20	18
14	Uppsala W	22	1	3	18	-64	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Malmö FF W win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.