Centenary Stadium · Referee I. Christodoulou · Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Malta U21 vs Northern Ireland U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Malta U21 and 2.45 for Northern Ireland U21, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Northern Ireland U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Northern Ireland U21 win
76.9% probability
Expected goals
0.66 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Northern Ireland U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Northern Ireland U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 8% / 15% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.66 goals for Malta U21 and 2.45 for Northern Ireland U21, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.4%
- 0–311.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–37.2%
Recent form
Malta U21
Northern Ireland U21
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Malta U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Portugal U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Latvia U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Germany U21 · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-11-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Greece U21 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Northern Ireland U21 win, at 76.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.