· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Malvern Town vs Redditch United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Malvern Town and 1.68 for Redditch United, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Redditch United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malvern Town home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Redditch United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Redditch United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Malvern Town and 1.68 for Redditch United, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Malvern Town
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Yate Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 1-2 (L)
Redditch United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough Sports · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedworth United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · Malvern Town 0-4 Redditch United (FA Cup)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Malvern Town 1-1 Redditch United (FA Cup)
- 2023-07-04T18:45:00.000Z · Malvern Town 2-0 Redditch United (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.