· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Malvern Town vs Yate Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Malvern Town and 2.03 for Yate Town, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Malvern Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malvern Town home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Yate Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malvern Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 20% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Malvern Town and 2.03 for Yate Town, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–26.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
Malvern Town
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mickleover Sports · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gloucester City · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertsey Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 0-4 (L)
Yate Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Devizes Town · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Malvern Town 3-0 Yate Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)
- 2024-10-22T18:45:00.000Z · Malvern Town 1-1 Yate Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)
- 2024-01-06T15:00:00.000Z · Malvern Town 0-0 Yate Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)
- 2023-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Malvern Town 3-2 Yate Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Plymouth Parkway | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Uxbridge | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 23 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Bath City | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | Gosport Borough | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Chertsey Town | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Taunton Town | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 11 | Berkhamsted | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 12 | Wimborne Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Evesham United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Basingstoke Town | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Yate Town | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 | Sholing | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.