Malženice vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Malženice and 1.31 for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Malženice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malženice home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malženice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Malženice and 1.31 for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Malženice win43%

Draw25%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.7%
2–19.0%
1–08.9%
1–27.6%
0–17.6%

Recent form

Malženice

2026-10-25T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Zlaté Moravce · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pohronie · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 2-5 (L)
2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petržalka · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 1-2 (L)

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

2026-10-24T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Prešov · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Šamorín	14	10	2	2	11	32
2	Petržalka	14	9	3	2	13	30
3	Považská Bystrica	14	8	2	4	4	26
4	Žilina II	14	7	3	4	4	24
5	Pohronie	14	7	2	5	4	23
6	Galanta	14	7	2	5	0	23
7	Tatran Prešov	14	6	4	4	2	22
8	Inter Bratislava	14	5	6	3	12	21
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	14	5	4	5	3	19
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Slovan Bratislava II	14	4	5	5	2	17
12	Malženice	14	4	3	7	-2	15
13	Zlaté Moravce	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	Humenné	14	3	3	8	-11	12
15	MFK Bytča	14	3	0	11	-22	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	14	1	3	10	-14	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.