Malženice vs MFK Bytča Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Malženice and 1.12 for MFK Bytča, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Malženice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Malženice win

63.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.29 – 1.12

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malženice home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
MFK Bytča away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malženice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for Malženice and 1.12 for MFK Bytča, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Malženice win64%

Draw19%

MFK Bytča win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.7%
2–08.7%
1–18.5%
1–07.6%
3–17.4%

Recent form

Malženice

2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pohronie · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 2-5 (L)
2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petržalka · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 2-1 (W)

MFK Bytča

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Námestovo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Šamorín	14	10	2	2	11	32
2	Petržalka	14	9	3	2	13	30
3	Považská Bystrica	14	8	2	4	4	26
4	Pohronie	14	7	2	5	4	23
5	Galanta	14	7	2	5	0	23
6	Tatran Prešov	14	6	4	4	2	22
7	Žilina II	13	6	3	4	3	21
8	Inter Bratislava	13	5	5	3	12	20
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	14	5	4	5	3	19
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Slovan Bratislava II	13	4	4	5	2	16
12	Zlaté Moravce	13	3	4	6	-2	13
13	Malženice	13	3	3	7	-5	12
14	Humenné	14	3	3	8	-11	12
15	MFK Bytča	14	3	0	11	-22	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	13	1	3	9	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Malženice win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.