Obecny futbalovy stadion Malzenice · Analysis updated 05:12 UTC
Malženice vs Považská Bystrica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Malženice and 1.68 for Považská Bystrica, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Malženice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Malženice win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malženice home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Považská Bystrica away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Malženice
- 2026-10-25T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Zlaté Moravce · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pohronie · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petržalka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 1-2 (L)
Považská Bystrica
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Prešov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Galanta · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T08:30:00.000Z · Malženice 1-2 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2026-04-12T08:30:00.000Z · Malženice 4-2 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2025-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · Malženice 3-1 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2025-03-02T09:30:00.000Z · Malženice 0-2 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2024-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · Malženice 1-3 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2023-11-18T12:00:00.000Z · Malženice 0-0 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2023-08-05T15:00:00.000Z · Malženice 1-4 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2022-04-29T16:00:00.000Z · Malženice 2-1 Považská Bystrica (3. liga - West)
- 2021-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · Malženice 0-1 Považská Bystrica (3. liga - West)
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 32 |
| 2 | Petržalka | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 26 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Galanta | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 7 | Tatran Prešov | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 8 | Inter Bratislava | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 | Malženice | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Humenné | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | -22 | 9 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Malženice win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.