Loftus Versfeld Stadium · Referee Sikhumbuzo Gasa, South Africa · Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Amazulu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.62 for Amazulu, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Mamelodi Sundowns the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mamelodi Sundowns win
73.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mamelodi Sundowns home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amazulu away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.4%
- 1–013.3%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.42 | 66.4% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +2.8 |
| Match result | Away | 13.50 | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.99 | +2.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 46.1% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.57 | 58.4% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.60 | 26.3% | 26.6% | 3.76 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 82.5% | 82.4% | 1.21 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.27 | 73.6% | 73.3% | 1.36 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 91.2% | 90.8% | 1.10 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 41.6% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.75 | 53.9% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 19.5% | 17.5% | 5.71 | -2.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.80 | 33.6% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Mamelodi Sundowns
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Chippa United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Siwelele · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Golden Arrows · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Milford FC · 2-0 (W)
Amazulu
- 2026-10-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Polokwane City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marumo Gallants · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Richards Bay · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-24T17:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-08-12T17:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 2-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-03-11T17:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 2-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2024-12-24T13:00:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2024-02-27T17:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2023-12-06T17:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2023-05-03T17:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 2-2 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2022-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2021-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
- 2021-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Amazulu (Premier Soccer League)
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mamelodi Sundowns win, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.