Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium · Referee P. Khumalo · Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Polokwane City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 1.46 for Polokwane City, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Mamelodi Sundowns the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mamelodi Sundowns win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mamelodi Sundowns home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Polokwane City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mamelodi Sundowns to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 1.46 for Polokwane City, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Mamelodi Sundowns
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiliete · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Richards Bay · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pirates · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 2-1 (W)
Polokwane City
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Siwelele · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Siwelele · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Amazulu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaizer Chiefs · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Marumo Gallants · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
8 Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando Pirates | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Golden Arrows | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Sekhukhune United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Amazulu | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Polokwane City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 7 | Durban City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Kaizer Chiefs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mamelodi Sundowns win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.