Lucas Moripe Stadium · Referee Sikhumbuzo Gasa, South Africa · Analysis updated 12:53 UTC
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Siwelele Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.58 for Siwelele, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Mamelodi Sundowns the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mamelodi Sundowns win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mamelodi Sundowns home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Siwelele away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mamelodi Sundowns to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 30% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.58 for Siwelele, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.0%
- 0–015.7%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Mamelodi Sundowns
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiliete · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Richards Bay · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pirates · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 2-1 (W)
Siwelele
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Golden Arrows · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kaizer Chiefs · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Chippa United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amazulu · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 7-4 Siwelele (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-12-03T17:30:00.000Z · Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Siwelele (Premier Soccer League)
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mamelodi Sundowns win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.