· Analysis updated 17:29 UTC
Mamer vs Résidence Walferdange Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Mamer and 1.91 for Résidence Walferdange, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Résidence Walferdange the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mamer home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Résidence Walferdange away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Résidence Walferdange to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Mamer and 1.91 for Résidence Walferdange, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Mamer
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Star Merl-Belair · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodange 91 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs F91 Dudelange · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Green Boys · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-2 (L)
Résidence Walferdange
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grevenmacher · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · Mamer 1-6 Résidence Walferdange (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · Mamer 2-1 Résidence Walferdange (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.