Mamer vs Wiltz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Mamer and 1.87 for Wiltz, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Wiltz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.87

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mamer home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wiltz away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wiltz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Mamer and 1.87 for Wiltz, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Mamer win37%

Draw22%

Wiltz win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.7%
1–28.1%
2–17.7%
2–27.2%
1–35.1%

Recent form

Mamer

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Star Merl-Belair · 4-0 (W)
2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodange 91 · 0-4 (L)
2026-07-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs F91 Dudelange · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Green Boys · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-2 (L)

Wiltz

2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Differdange 03 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 7-2 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen · 0-9 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	9	0	1	22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	8	0	2	9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	7	0	3	12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	6	1	3	11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	6	1	4	7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	-3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	-5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	-8	8
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	-10	8
14	US Rumelange	10	2	1	7	-16	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	-13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	-36

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.