Nakambala Stadium · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Nkwazi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Man Utd Zambia Academy and 0.73 for Nkwazi, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives Man Utd Zambia Academy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Man Utd Zambia Academy home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nkwazi away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 1–017.4%
- 0–115.8%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Man Utd Zambia Academy
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Makeni All Stars · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kansanshi Dynamos · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NAPSA Stars · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabwe Warriors · 2-1 (W)
Nkwazi
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Eagles · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Green Buffaloes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chirundu Utd · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Roan United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Prison Leopards · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-20T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 0-1 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2026-01-17T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 2-2 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 2-1 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2024-12-07T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 0-0 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2024-04-24T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 3-0 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2023-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 1-2 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2023-05-07T11:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 4-1 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2022-11-26T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 2-0 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2019-04-20T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 0-1 Nkwazi (Super League)
- 2019-02-16T13:00:00.000Z · Man Utd Zambia Academy 0-1 Nkwazi (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zanaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ZESCO United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nchanga Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nkana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kabwe Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Power Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Red Arrows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Konkola Blades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Roan United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NAPSA Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Green Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nkwazi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Trident | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Mutondo Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Makeni All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Chirundu Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.