· Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Manacor vs Inter Ibiza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.33 expected goals for Manacor and 0.75 for Inter Ibiza, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Manacor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Manacor win
85.5% probability
Expected goals
3.33 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Manacor home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Ibiza away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manacor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 10% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.33 goals for Manacor and 0.75 for Inter Ibiza, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 4–08.7%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Manacor
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sineu · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Migjorn · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Platges Calvià · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Deportiva · 1-3 (L)
Inter Ibiza
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Porreres · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Mercadal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Constància · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Constància | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Llosetense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Platges Calvià | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Santanyí | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Porreres | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Formentera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Binissalem | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Arenal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manacor win, at 85.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.