· Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Managua vs Matagalpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.38 expected goals for Managua and 0.60 for Matagalpa, a combined total of 4.98. That distribution gives Managua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 94%, with the draw at 4%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 94% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Managua win
94.1% probability
Expected goals
4.38 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Managua home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Managua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 94%, against 94% / 4% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.38 goals for Managua and 0.60 for Matagalpa, a combined 4.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
96%
Double chance X2
6%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–010.6%
- 3–09.7%
- 5–09.3%
- 6–06.8%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Managua
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Jalapa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Rancho Santana · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 3-3 (D)
Matagalpa
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Managua · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAN Managua · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-10T01:00:00.000Z · Managua 3-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-30T01:00:00.000Z · Managua 2-4 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-16T00:00:00.000Z · Managua 2-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2026-02-16T01:00:00.000Z · Managua 1-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2025-11-02T02:00:00.000Z · Managua 3-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2025-08-24T21:00:00.000Z · Managua 2-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2025-04-13T21:00:00.000Z · Managua 1-3 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2025-02-16T23:00:00.000Z · Managua 1-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2024-12-01T21:00:00.000Z · Managua 5-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2024-11-16T23:00:00.000Z · Managua 2-3 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Matagalpa | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -22 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Managua win, at 94.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 94% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.