Estadio Miguel Chocorron Buitrago · Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
Managua vs Rancho Santana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Managua and 1.13 for Rancho Santana, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Managua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Managua win
65.1% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Managua home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rancho Santana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Managua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Managua and 1.13 for Rancho Santana, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Managua
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Jalapa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Rancho Santana · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 3-3 (D)
Rancho Santana
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Jalapa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Matagalpa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Nicaragua table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Real Estelí | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | H&H Export | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Matagalpa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Jalapa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Diriangén | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 7 | Rancho Santana | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | Xilotepelt | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Managua win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.