· Analysis updated 01:17 UTC
Managua vs San Marcos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.17 expected goals for Managua and 0.80 for San Marcos, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Managua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Managua win
83.2% probability
Expected goals
3.17 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Managua home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Managua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 11% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.17 goals for Managua and 0.80 for San Marcos, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 52%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.1%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–08.0%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Managua
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Jalapa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Rancho Santana · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 3-3 (D)
San Marcos
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Matagalpa | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -22 | 10 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Managua win, at 83.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.