· Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Manauara vs GAS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Manauara and 0.53 for GAS, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Manauara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Manauara win
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Manauara home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manauara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 21% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Manauara and 0.53 for GAS, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 2–015.9%
- 3–09.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–19.1%
Recent form
Manauara
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Goiatuba EC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Goiatuba EC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Independência · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Independência · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Raimundo · 1-0 (W)
GAS
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manauara win, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.