Manchego vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Manchego and 1.63 for Toledo, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Manchego the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Manchego home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toledo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchego to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Manchego and 1.63 for Toledo, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Manchego win45%

Draw22%

Toledo win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.1%
2–18.6%
1–27.4%
2–27.0%
1–05.6%

Recent form

Manchego

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs San Clemente · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Almansa · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Marchamalo · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villacañas · 2-0 (W)

Toledo

2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Solana · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Noblejas · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintanar del Rey · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.