Etihad Stadium · Analysis updated 14:24 UTC
Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Manchester City and 1.23 for Manchester United, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Manchester City win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Manchester City home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Manchester City and 1.23 for Manchester United, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Manchester City
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 2-0 (W)
Manchester United
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · Manchester City 1-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2026-01-17T12:30:00.000Z · Manchester City 0-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-09-14T15:30:00.000Z · Manchester City 3-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-04-06T15:30:00.000Z · Manchester City 0-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-12-15T16:30:00.000Z · Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · Manchester City 1-1 Manchester United (Community Shield)
- 2024-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United (FA Cup)
- 2024-03-03T15:30:00.000Z · Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-10-29T15:30:00.000Z · Manchester City 3-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-06-03T14:00:00.000Z · Manchester City 2-1 Manchester United (FA Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manchester City win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.