Old Trafford · Referee Stuart Attwell, England · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Manchester United vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Manchester United and 0.96 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Manchester United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Manchester United win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Manchester United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Manchester United and 0.96 for Tottenham, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 48.6% vs market 40.3%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 48.6% | 2.06 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.0% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.75 | 19.7% | 20.0% | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 56.8% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 23.4% | 23.1% | 4.33 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.4% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.7% | 80.0% | 1.25 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 51.4% | 1.95 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Manchester United
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 4-0 (W)
Tottenham
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-07T12:30:00.000Z · Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-11-08T12:30:00.000Z · Manchester United 2-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-05-21T19:00:00.000Z · Manchester United 0-1 Tottenham (UEFA Europa League)
- 2025-02-16T16:30:00.000Z · Manchester United 0-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2024-12-19T20:00:00.000Z · Manchester United 3-4 Tottenham (League Cup)
- 2024-09-29T15:30:00.000Z · Manchester United 0-3 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2024-01-14T16:30:00.000Z · Manchester United 2-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · Manchester United 0-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-04-27T19:15:00.000Z · Manchester United 2-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2022-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manchester United win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.