Old Trafford · Analysis updated 06:18 UTC
Manchester United W vs West Ham W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Manchester United W and 2.43 for West Ham W, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives West Ham W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
West Ham W win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Manchester United W home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
West Ham W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–17.1%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Manchester United W
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool W · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 2-1 (W)
West Ham W
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:45:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · Manchester United W 2-1 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2026-03-18T19:15:00.000Z · Manchester United W 0-0 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z · Manchester United W 2-1 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2025-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · Manchester United W 0-0 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2024-09-21T11:00:00.000Z · Manchester United W 3-0 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2024-03-03T15:00:00.000Z · Manchester United W 1-1 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2023-11-12T12:00:00.000Z · Manchester United W 5-0 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2023-03-25T17:30:00.000Z · Manchester United W 4-0 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2022-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · Manchester United W 2-0 West Ham W (FA WSL)
- 2022-05-01T11:00:00.000Z · Manchester United W 3-0 West Ham W (FA WSL)
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manchester United W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is West Ham W win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.