Mandalskameratene vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Mandalskameratene and 1.78 for Staal Jørpeland, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Mandalskameratene the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mandalskameratene home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Staal Jørpeland away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Mandalskameratene win40%

Draw22%

Staal Jørpeland win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.9%
2–18.1%
1–27.9%
2–27.2%
1–05.0%

Recent form

Mandalskameratene

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Madla · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund II · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stabæk II · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Åkra · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Odd II · 4-0 (W)

Staal Jørpeland

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hinna · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Varhaug · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brodd · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandalskameratene · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · Mandalskameratene 2-0 Staal Jørpeland (3. Division - Girone 4)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · Mandalskameratene 8-3 Staal Jørpeland (3. Division - Girone 4)
2024-10-20T11:00:00.000Z · Mandalskameratene 5-1 Staal Jørpeland (3. Division - Girone 2)
2024-04-27T12:00:00.000Z · Mandalskameratene 3-4 Staal Jørpeland (3. Division - Girone 2)
2021-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · Mandalskameratene 2-3 Staal Jørpeland (3. Division - Girone 3)

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	25	15	6	4	32	51
2	Mandalskameratene	25	15	4	6	23	49
3	Varhaug	25	12	6	7	8	42
4	Flekkerøy	25	13	3	9	8	42
5	Brodd	25	12	3	10	11	39
6	Vindbjart	25	12	2	11	18	38
7	Viking II	25	10	5	10	20	35
8	Våg	24	11	2	11	2	35
9	Stabæk II	25	10	4	11	-3	34
10	Staal Jørpeland	25	8	5	12	-14	29
11	Odd II	24	8	5	11	-14	29
12	Hinna	25	7	6	12	-23	27
13	Haugesund II	25	7	4	14	-24	25
14	Åkra	25	5	3	17	-44	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.