Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Mandalskameratene and 1.95 for Varhaug, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Mandalskameratene the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mandalskameratene home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varhaug away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mandalskameratene to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Mandalskameratene and 1.95 for Varhaug, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Mandalskameratene win41%

Draw21%

Varhaug win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–17.5%
1–17.4%
2–27.3%
1–27.2%
3–15.1%

Recent form

Mandalskameratene

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Odd II · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vindbjart · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Staal Jørpeland · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Varhaug · 0-2 (L)

Varhaug

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Våg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Staal Jørpeland · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flekkerøy · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking II · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brodd · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	24	15	6	3	34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	14	4	6	21	46
3	Flekkerøy	24	12	3	9	7	39
4	Varhaug	24	11	6	7	6	39
5	Vindbjart	24	12	2	10	19	38
6	Brodd	24	11	3	10	6	36
7	Viking II	24	10	5	9	21	35
8	Våg	24	11	2	11	2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	10	3	11	-3	33
10	Odd II	24	8	5	11	-14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	7	5	12	-15	26
12	Hinna	24	7	5	12	-23	26
13	Haugesund II	24	7	4	13	-22	25
14	Åkra	24	5	3	16	-39	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.