Mandel United vs VW Hamme Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Mandel United and 1.22 for VW Hamme, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Mandel United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mandel United win

60.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.23 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mandel United home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VW Hamme away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mandel United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Mandel United and 1.22 for VW Hamme, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Mandel United win60%

Draw20%

VW Hamme win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–18.6%
2–07.9%
3–17.2%
1–07.1%

Recent form

Mandel United

2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Roeselare Daisel · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Harelbeke · 3-0 (W)

VW Hamme

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Voorde Appelterre · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem II · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torhout · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RFC Wetteren · 3-3 (D)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second Amateur Division - VFV A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eendracht Aalst	6	5	1	0	8	16
2	Diksmuide	6	4	1	1	4	13
3	Oostkamp	6	3	2	1	4	11
4	Mechelen II	6	3	1	2	3	10
5	Voorde Appelterre	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Zulte Waregem II	6	2	2	2	4	8
7	Sparta Petegem	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	Torhout	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	RFC Wetteren	6	2	2	2	-3	8
10	VW Hamme	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	FC Lebbeke	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Ninove	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Londerzeel	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	KRC Gent	6	1	2	3	-1	5
15	Oudenaarde	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	HO Kalken	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mandel United win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.