· Analysis updated 07:59 UTC
Maniema Union vs Vita Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Maniema Union and 0.99 for Vita Club, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Maniema Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Maniema Union win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maniema Union home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vita Club away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Maniema Union
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabuscorp · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabuscorp · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Simba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs JSK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Céleste · 3-1 (W)
Vita Club
- 2026-06-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Eloi Lupopo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Simba · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Don Bosco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maniema Union · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JSK · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-10T14:00:00.000Z · Maniema Union 2-1 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · Maniema Union 0-1 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
- 2026-01-14T14:00:00.000Z · Maniema Union 0-0 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Maniema Union 0-0 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
- 2025-06-01T14:00:00.000Z · Maniema Union 3-0 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
- 2025-03-06T14:30:00.000Z · Maniema Union 1-1 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
- 2024-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Maniema Union 3-1 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
- 2024-05-19T14:30:00.000Z · Maniema Union 1-0 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
- 2024-03-31T13:00:00.000Z · Maniema Union 0-0 Vita Club (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Don Bosco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Céleste | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | FC Renaissance | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lubumbashi Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Butras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Blessing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Saint-Luc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maniema Union win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.