Manly Utd U20 vs NWS Spirit U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Manly Utd U20 and 1.72 for NWS Spirit U20, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Manly Utd U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Manly Utd U20 win

45.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

NWS Spirit U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manly Utd U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Manly Utd U20 and 1.72 for NWS Spirit U20, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 72%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Manly Utd U20 win46%

Draw21%

NWS Spirit U20 win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.3%
1–18.1%
2–27.2%
1–27.0%
3–15.7%

Recent form

Manly Utd U20

NWS Spirit U20

2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Manly Utd U20 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Blacktown City U20 · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-02T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney Utd U20 · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-25T09:45:00.000Z · H vs WS Wanderers U20 · 4-3 (W)
2026-07-18T09:15:00.000Z · A vs UNSW U20 · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Npl Nsw U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	APIA Leichhardt U20	30	23	3	4	44	72
2	Sydney Utd U20	30	19	6	5	51	63
3	Marconi S. U20	30	17	6	7	27	57
4	Manly Utd U20	30	16	4	10	24	52
5	NWS Spirit U20	30	15	5	10	13	50
6	Sydney FC U20	30	13	9	8	15	48
7	Wollongong Wolves U20	30	13	8	9	10	47
8	Sutherland Sharks U20	30	13	5	12	17	44
9	Blacktown City U20	30	13	5	12	-9	44
10	SD Raiders U20	30	12	6	12	-9	42
11	WS Wanderers U20	30	11	2	17	-13	35
12	Rockdale Ilinden U20	30	10	5	15	-30	35
13	St. George City U20	30	9	7	14	-7	34
14	UNSW U20	30	9	7	14	-20	34
15	St George Saints U20	30	3	6	21	-44	15
16	Sydney Olympic U20	30	0	4	26	-69	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Manly Utd U20 win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.