Manresa vs San Cristóbal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Manresa and 1.15 for San Cristóbal, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Manresa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Manresa win

50.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Manresa home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
San Cristóbal away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manresa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Manresa and 1.15 for San Cristóbal, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Manresa win50%

Draw24%

San Cristóbal win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–09.8%
2–19.6%
2–08.4%
0–16.7%

Recent form

Manresa

2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tudelano · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Sport · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnedo · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant Andreu · 1-3 (L)

San Cristóbal

2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Badalona · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Peralada · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Manresa · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Manresa win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.