Estadio Jocay · Referee Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar, Ecuador · Analysis updated 22:27 UTC
Manta FC vs Leones del Norte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Manta FC and 0.95 for Leones del Norte, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Leones del Norte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Manta FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones del Norte away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.1%
- 0–115.3%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Manta FC
- 2026-09-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aucas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Emelec · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Macara · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 2-0 (W)
Leones del Norte
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Guayaquil City FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tecnico Universitario · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mushuc Runa SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · Manta FC 0-2 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro)
- 2026-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · Manta FC 0-3 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro)
- 2024-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · Manta FC 1-1 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2024-08-07T00:00:00.000Z · Manta FC 2-1 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2024-06-05T00:00:00.000Z · Manta FC 3-1 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2024-04-11T00:00:00.000Z · Manta FC 0-3 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro Serie B)
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 78 |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 63 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 53 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 53 |
| 5 | Aucas | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 45 |
| 7 | Libertad | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Emelec | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Leones del Norte | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | -6 | 40 |
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | -9 | 44 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | -4 | 40 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 38 |
| 14 | Delfin SC | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -13 | 35 |
| 15 | Tecnico Universitario | 33 | 10 | 3 | 20 | -16 | 33 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 34 | 7 | 6 | 21 | -27 | 27 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.