· Analysis updated 04:43 UTC
Mantova U19 vs Cittadella U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Mantova U19 and 1.38 for Cittadella U19, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Mantova U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mantova U19 win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mantova U19 home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Cittadella U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mantova U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 17% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Mantova U19 and 1.38 for Cittadella U19, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–06.3%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
Mantova U19
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese U19 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pro Vercelli U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese U19 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol U19 · 0-0 (D)
Cittadella U19
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Padova U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mantova U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Renate U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Modena U19 · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 1 | Catanzaro U19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Sampdoria U19 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Perugia U19 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 |
| 3 | Vicenza U19 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Palermo U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Cremonese U19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 5 | Venezia U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Monopoli U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Udinese U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Pescara U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Padova U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Bari U19 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Virtus Entella U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Avellino U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Lecco U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Latina U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Cittadella U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Napoli U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Brescia U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Mantova U19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Spezia U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Modena U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Frosinone U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Ascoli U19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 15 | Sudtirol U19 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 16 | Reggiana U19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mantova U19 win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.