Mara Sugar vs Shabana Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Mara Sugar and 0.86 for Shabana, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Mara Sugar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.4% probability

High confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.04 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mara Sugar home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Shabana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mara Sugar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 32% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Mara Sugar and 0.86 for Shabana, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Mara Sugar win39%

Draw32%

Shabana win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–015.5%
0–014.9%
1–113.4%
0–112.9%
2–08.0%

Recent form

Mara Sugar

2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Murang'a SEAL · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mathare United · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shabana · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-09T13:15:00.000Z · A vs AFC Leopards · 1-2 (L)

Shabana

2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sofapaka · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidco United · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulinzi Stars · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.