Marbella vs Estepona Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Marbella and 1.14 for Estepona, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Estepona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.01 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marbella home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estepona away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estepona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 32% / 30% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Marbella and 1.14 for Estepona, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Marbella win32%

Draw30%

Estepona win39%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–113.3%
1–011.8%
0–011.6%
1–27.6%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 56.8% vs market 46.4%, edge +10.4 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	2.00	46.4%	56.8%	1.76	+10.4
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.40	67.4%	68.1%	1.47	+0.7
Match result	Away	2.30	38.4%	38.6%	2.59	+0.2
Match result	Draw	3.00	29.5%	29.5%	3.39	0.0
Match result	Home	2.75	32.1%	32.0%	3.13	-0.1
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.53	61.7%	61.5%	1.63	-0.2
Double chance	Home/Away	1.33	70.9%	70.6%	1.42	-0.3
Both teams to score	Yes	1.73	53.6%	43.2%	2.31	-10.4

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Marbella

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Puente Genil · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 0-3 (L)

Estepona

2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Linares Deportivo · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.