Marbella vs Las Palmas II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Marbella and 0.77 for Las Palmas II, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Marbella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Marbella win

51.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marbella home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Las Palmas II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marbella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Marbella and 0.77 for Las Palmas II, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Marbella win51%

Draw28%

Las Palmas II win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.0%
1–112.4%
0–011.6%
2–011.1%
0–19.0%

Recent form

Marbella

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Puente Genil · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 0-3 (L)

Las Palmas II

2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Linares Deportivo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Don Benito · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Marbella win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.