· Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Marchamalo vs Unión Adarve Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Marchamalo and 1.30 for Unión Adarve, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Marchamalo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marchamalo win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marchamalo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Unión Adarve away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marchamalo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Marchamalo and 1.30 for Unión Adarve, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Marchamalo
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)
Unión Adarve
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrejón · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuenlabrada · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcobendas Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Colonia Moscardó · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marchamalo win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.