Marchamalo vs Villarrubia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Marchamalo and 1.01 for Villarrubia, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Marchamalo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Marchamalo win

63.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.17 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marchamalo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarrubia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marchamalo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Marchamalo and 1.01 for Villarrubia, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Marchamalo win64%

Draw20%

Villarrubia win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–19.9%
2–09.8%
1–19.1%
1–09.0%
3–17.2%

Recent form

Marchamalo

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)

Villarrubia

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrobledo · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Toledo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Balazote · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Marchamalo win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.