Marconi Stadium · Analysis updated 20:00 UTC
Marconi Stallions vs Blacktown City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Marconi Stallions and 0.88 for Blacktown City, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Marconi Stallions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marconi Stallions win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marconi Stallions home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marconi Stallions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Marconi Stallions and 0.88 for Blacktown City, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Marconi Stallions
- 2026-10-24T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Oakleigh Cannons · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs NWS Spirit · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs NWS Spirit · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sydney Olympic · 1-0 (W)
Blacktown City
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-28T05:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 2-0 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2026-03-15T04:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 1-0 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2025-05-25T05:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 2-0 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2025-02-08T08:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 1-1 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2024-09-01T07:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 6-2 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2024-08-17T09:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 1-2 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2024-05-12T05:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 0-3 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2023-06-25T05:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 1-3 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2023-03-11T08:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 2-0 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
- 2022-06-04T09:00:00.000Z · Marconi Stallions 1-1 Blacktown City (New South Wales NPL)
New South Wales NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers | 30 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 68 |
| 2 | Sydney United | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 64 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 62 |
| 4 | Sutherland Sharks | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Manly United | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Rockdale City Suns | 30 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | NWS Spirit | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | SD Raiders | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -5 | 41 |
| 9 | Sydney FC U23 | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -5 | 41 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U23 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 38 |
| 11 | Wollongong Wolves | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -8 | 38 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -16 | 37 |
| 13 | Blacktown City | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | UNSW | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 15 | St. George Saints | 30 | 8 | 3 | 19 | -27 | 27 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -30 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marconi Stallions win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.