Marconi Stadium · Analysis updated 13:58 UTC
Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Marconi Stallions and 1.11 for NWS Spirit, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Marconi Stallions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marconi Stallions win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marconi Stallions home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NWS Spirit away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marconi Stallions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Marconi Stallions and 1.11 for NWS Spirit, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 49.6% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.5% | 26.6% | 3.76 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.83 | 48.9% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 48.2% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.2% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.75 | 51.1% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.3% | 25.0% | 4.00 | -1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 75.2% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Marconi Stallions
- 2026-10-24T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Oakleigh Cannons · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs NWS Spirit · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs NWS Spirit · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sydney Olympic · 1-0 (W)
NWS Spirit
- 2026-09-06T06:00:00.000Z · A vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Marconi Stallions · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Marconi Stallions · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T07:30:00.000Z · H vs SD Raiders · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Manly United · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
New South Wales NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers | 30 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 68 |
| 2 | Sydney United | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 64 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 62 |
| 4 | Sutherland Sharks | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Manly United | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Rockdale City Suns | 30 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | NWS Spirit | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | SD Raiders | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -5 | 41 |
| 9 | Sydney FC U23 | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -5 | 41 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U23 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 38 |
| 11 | Wollongong Wolves | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -8 | 38 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -16 | 37 |
| 13 | Blacktown City | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | UNSW | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 15 | St. George Saints | 30 | 8 | 3 | 19 | -27 | 27 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -30 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marconi Stallions win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.