· Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Mardin 1969 vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Mardin 1969 and 0.80 for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor, a combined total of 1.91. That distribution gives Mardin 1969 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.9% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mardin 1969 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mardin 1969 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Mardin 1969 and 0.80 for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor, a combined 1.91 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–014.8%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.8%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Mardin 1969
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muş Sport Klübü · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-0 (D)
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs 12 Bingölspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ankara Demirspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeni Orduspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sakaryaspor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs 24 Erzincanspor · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muş Sport Klübü | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Aliağa FAŞ | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Elazığspor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 |
| 4 | Güzide Gebzespor | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Çorluspor 1947 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Şanlıurfaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Isparta 32 Spor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Menemen FK | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Erbaaspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Somaspor | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Ankaraspor | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Kastamonuspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 4 |
| 15 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 0 |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | |
| 1 | Sakaryaspor | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Adana 01 FK | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Yeni Orduspor | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Ankara Demirspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | 24 Erzincanspor | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | 1461 Trabzon FK | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 Bingölspor | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ankaragücü | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Karacabey Belediyespor | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Fethiyespor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 13 | Serik Spor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | İnegölspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Kırklarelispor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Kütahyaspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | İskenderunspor | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.