Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Mardin 1969 and 1.10 for Manisa F.K., a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Mardin 1969 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Mardin 1969 win

53.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mardin 1969 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manisa F.K. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mardin 1969 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Mardin 1969 and 1.10 for Manisa F.K., a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Mardin 1969 win54%

Draw23%

Manisa F.K. win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–09.9%
2–19.8%
2–08.9%
0–16.1%

Recent form

Mardin 1969

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muş Sport Klübü · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-0 (D)

Manisa F.K.

2026-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muğlaspor · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Esenler Erokspor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kayserispor · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs İstanbulspor · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mardin 1969 win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.