Marek vs Nesebar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Marek and 1.65 for Nesebar, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Marek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marek home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nesebar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Marek and 1.65 for Nesebar, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Marek win42%

Draw22%

Nesebar win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.3%
2–18.5%
1–27.7%
2–27.0%
1–05.7%

Recent form

Marek

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chavdar Troyan · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilski Sportist · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 0-3 (L)

Nesebar

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodopa Smolyan · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vihren · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beroe · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	7	3	2	14	24
2	Vihren	12	7	3	2	13	24
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	12	7	3	2	13	24
4	Fratria	12	6	4	2	7	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	5	4	3	4	19
6	Yantra 2019	12	6	1	5	2	19
7	Nesebar	12	5	3	4	3	18
8	Beroe	12	5	3	4	3	18
9	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	12	4	5	3	-1	17
10	Hebar 1918	12	5	2	5	7	17
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	5	2	4	0	17
12	Marek	12	5	2	5	0	17
13	Ludogorets II	11	4	3	4	0	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	4	2	6	-11	14
15	Montana	12	3	2	7	-11	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	2	4	6	-5	10
17	Dobrudzha	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	0	1	11	-29	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.