Stadion Bonchuk · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Marek vs Pirin Blagoevgrad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Marek and 0.73 for Pirin Blagoevgrad, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Marek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marek win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marek home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pirin Blagoevgrad away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 3–010.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Marek
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chavdar Troyan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilski Sportist · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 0-3 (L)
Pirin Blagoevgrad
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marek · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Marek 3-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Second League)
- 2026-07-11T15:30:00.000Z · Marek 2-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Marek 0-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Second League)
- 2025-11-02T12:30:00.000Z · Marek 3-1 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Second League)
- 2025-03-22T13:30:00.000Z · Marek 0-1 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Second League)
- 2024-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · Marek 1-1 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Second League)
- 2024-01-31T12:30:00.000Z · Marek 0-3 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-07-08T00:00:00.000Z · Marek 1-3 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-25T00:00:00.000Z · Marek 1-4 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-06-25T00:00:00.000Z · Marek 1-6 Pirin Blagoevgrad (Friendlies Clubs)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marek win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.