Hartsdown Park · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Margate vs Herne Bay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Margate and 1.21 for Herne Bay, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Margate the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Margate win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Herne Bay away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Margate to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Margate and 1.21 for Herne Bay, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 63%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Margate
Herne Bay
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southall · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingstonian · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Whyteleafe · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Div One - Isthmian South East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Three Bridges | 42 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 80 | 96 |
| 2 | AFC Croydon Athletic | 42 | 26 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 85 |
| 3 | Jersey Bulls | 42 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 46 | 84 |
| 4 | AFC Whyteleafe | 42 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 63 | 83 |
| 5 | Sittingbourne | 42 | 23 | 10 | 9 | 36 | 79 |
| 6 | Margate | 42 | 22 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 75 |
| 7 | Faversham Town | 42 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 28 | 74 |
| 8 | Deal Town | 42 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 69 |
| 9 | Ashford United | 42 | 20 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 67 |
| 10 | Merstham | 42 | 17 | 9 | 16 | 8 | 60 |
| 11 | Eastbourne Town | 42 | 16 | 8 | 18 | -14 | 56 |
| 12 | Sevenoaks Town | 42 | 16 | 7 | 19 | -8 | 55 |
| 13 | Crowborough Athletic | 42 | 16 | 7 | 19 | -21 | 55 |
| 14 | Herne Bay | 42 | 15 | 10 | 17 | -12 | 55 |
| 15 | Broadbridge Heath | 42 | 15 | 5 | 22 | -10 | 50 |
| 16 | Erith Town | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | -16 | 47 |
| 17 | Hastings United | 42 | 13 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 46 |
| 18 | Sheppey United | 42 | 12 | 8 | 22 | -32 | 44 |
| 19 | Hassocks | 42 | 11 | 8 | 23 | -26 | 41 |
| 20 | Beckenham Town | 42 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -41 | 35 |
| 21 | VCD Athletic | 42 | 8 | 8 | 26 | -47 | 32 |
| 22 | East Grinstead Town | 42 | 1 | 3 | 38 | -131 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Margate win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.